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Dolní Benešov vs Zlín II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
CANC
13:30
Zlín II
Zlín II
2/21/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 17Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dolní Benešov37%
×Draw26%
Zlín II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolní Benešov
1.33
Zlín II
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 83 away

creates per match

Dolní Benešov
0.80
Zlín II
1.01

allows per match

Dolní Benešov
1.60
Zlín II
1.86

finishing

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par
Zlín II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolní Benešov ↓

Zlín II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dolní Benešov or draw
64%
Dolní Benešov or Zlín II
74%
Draw or Zlín II
63%

Winning margin

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
17%
Zlín II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
74%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
38%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
15%
Zlín II 1+ goals
73%
Zlín II 2+ goals
38%
Zlín II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
51%
Zlín II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolní Benešov at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Zlín II away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolní Benešov attack 0.80 + Zlín II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.33

Zlín II attack 1.01 + Dolní Benešov defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dolní Benešov scores more
37%
level
26%
Zlín II scores more
36%

Dolní Benešov at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dolní Benešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dolní Benešov face Zlín II (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Dolní Benešov hosting Zlín II. Match starts February 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dolní Benešov host Zlín II at Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.