Zlaté Moravce 0–3 Spartak Trnava: Result & Stats

Zlaté Moravce

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Spartak Trnava

A. Taiwo 53'

S. Štefánik 49'

K. Savvidīs 31'

10/2/2022

League #332 · Round 12Štadión FC ViOn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zlaté Moravce16%

×Draw23%

Spartak Trnava60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zlaté MoravceExpected goals in this matchSpartak Trnava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.73

Zlaté Moravce

0.77

Spartak Trnava

1.73

Spartak Trnava creates 125% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

0.33

creates per match

1.80

1.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Zlaté Moravce

0.33

Spartak Trnava

1.80

allows per match

Zlaté Moravce

1.67

Spartak Trnava

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zlaté Moravce+0.00on par

Spartak Trnava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlaté Moravce ↓

Spartak Trnava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zlaté Moravce or draw

40%

Zlaté Moravce or Spartak Trnava

77%

Draw or Spartak Trnava

84%

Winning margin

Zlaté Moravce wins by 2+

5%

Spartak Trnava wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Zlaté Moravce 1+ goals

54%

Zlaté Moravce 2+ goals

18%

Zlaté Moravce 3+ goals

4%

Spartak Trnava 1+ goals

82%

Spartak Trnava 2+ goals

52%

Spartak Trnava 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Zlaté Moravce (draw refunded)

21%

Spartak Trnava (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlaté Moravce at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Spartak Trnava away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlaté Moravce attack 0.33 + Spartak Trnava defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

Spartak Trnava attack 1.80 + Zlaté Moravce defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zlaté Moravce scores more

16%

level

23%

Spartak Trnava scores more

60%

Spartak Trnava at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Spartak Trnava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

K. Savvidīs↳ A. Taiwo

35'

37'

40'

42'

49'

S. Štefánik↳ M. Ristovski

53'

A. Taiwo↳ S. Štefánik

58'

P. Karhan← M. Mikovič

61'

T. Horák← T. Ďubek

61'

A. Brenkus← T. Vestenický

65'

Michal Pintér

65'

Kristián Koštrna

65'

Lukáš Štetina

67'

Dyjan← A. Taiwo

67'

S. Baba← E. Daniel

73'

M. Čonka← M. Bednár

73'

T. Grozdanovski← T. Múdry

76'

A. Oseni← S. Štefánik

76'

M. Ujlaky← S. Kóša

81'

Stephano Almeida

86'

Marek Ujlaky

Zlaté3-4-3

Spartak4-3-3

12

⚽A

▼

Taiwo

7

A

Ristovski

23

▼

Daniel

8

⚽A

▼

Štefánik

15

Procházka

88

⚽

Savvidīs

29

▼

Mikovič

26

▼

2

24

71

1

66

▼

42

37

16

14

6

▼

Múdry

27

Almeida

20

▼

Pinte

9

▼

Vestenick

26

▼

Ďubek

Manager: J. Kocian

42'▲E. Maulana←▼P. Pinte

61'▲T. Horák←▼T. Ďubek

61'▲A. Brenkus←▼T. Vestenický

73'▲M. Čonka←▼M. Bednár

73'▲T. Grozdanovski←▼T. Múdry

Zlaté Moravce substitutes

17Maulana7Horák29Brenkus90Čonka5Grozdanovski39Balan10Niarchos18Chropovský25Suľa

Manager: M. Gašparík

58'▲P. Karhan←▼M. Mikovič

67'▲Dyjan←▼A. Taiwo

67'▲S. Baba←▼E. Daniel

76'▲A. Oseni←▼S. Štefánik

76'▲M. Ujlaky←▼S. Kóša

Spartak Trnava substitutes

21Karhan91Dyjan11Baba20Oseni13Ujlaky72Vantruba22Ivan