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Zlaté Moravce vs Komárno — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zlaté Moravce
Zlaté Moravce
CANC
12:00
Komárno
Komárno
2/3/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zlaté Moravce36%
×Draw20%
Komárno43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlaté Moravce
1.98
Komárno
2.17

Komárno creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Zlaté Moravce
2.33
Komárno
2.00

allows per match

Zlaté Moravce
2.33
Komárno
1.63

finishing

Zlaté Moravce+0.00on par
Komárno+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlaté Moravce ↓

Komárno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Zlaté Moravce or draw
57%
Zlaté Moravce or Komárno
80%
Draw or Komárno
64%

Winning margin

Zlaté Moravce wins by 2+
19%
Komárno wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Zlaté Moravce 1+ goals
86%
Zlaté Moravce 2+ goals
59%
Zlaté Moravce 3+ goals
31%
Komárno 1+ goals
89%
Komárno 2+ goals
64%
Komárno 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Zlaté Moravce (draw refunded)
46%
Komárno (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlaté Moravce at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Komárno away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlaté Moravce attack 2.33 + Komárno defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.98

Komárno attack 2.00 + Zlaté Moravce defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zlaté Moravce scores more
36%
level
20%
Komárno scores more
43%

Komárno at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Komárno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zlaté Moravce host Komárno

February 3, 2024: Zlaté Moravce take on Komárno in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Zlaté Moravce host Komárno at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.