Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1–1 TEMPO Partizánske

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

FT

1 – 1

TEMPO Partizánske

4/10/2022

3. liga - West · West - 22Futbalový štadión na Levickej ulici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II59%

×Draw21%

TEMPO Partizánske20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé IIExpected goals in this matchTEMPO Partizánske

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.15

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

2.12

TEMPO Partizánske

1.15

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

1.58

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

1.58

TEMPO Partizánske

1.00

allows per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

1.29

TEMPO Partizánske

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par

TEMPO Partizánske+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II ↓

TEMPO Partizánske →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or draw

80%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or TEMPO Partizánske

79%

Draw or TEMPO Partizánske

41%

Winning margin

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+

36%

TEMPO Partizánske wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals

88%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals

62%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals

35%

TEMPO Partizánske 1+ goals

68%

TEMPO Partizánske 2+ goals

32%

TEMPO Partizánske 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)

75%

TEMPO Partizánske (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

TEMPO Partizánske away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 1.58 + TEMPO Partizánske defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.12

TEMPO Partizánske attack 1.00 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more

59%

level

21%

TEMPO Partizánske scores more

20%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff