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Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II vs Spartak Myjava — 3. liga - West 2020

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
CANC
15:00
Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
6/13/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II36%
×Draw26%
Spartak Myjava38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.33
Spartak Myjava
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 55 away

creates per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.58
Spartak Myjava
1.47

allows per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.29
Spartak Myjava
1.09

finishing

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par
Spartak Myjava+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II ↓

Spartak Myjava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or draw
62%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or Spartak Myjava
74%
Draw or Spartak Myjava
64%

Winning margin

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+
16%
Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals
74%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals
38%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals
15%
Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
75%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
40%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)
48%
Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Spartak Myjava away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 1.58 + Spartak Myjava defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Spartak Myjava attack 1.47 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more
36%
level
26%
Spartak Myjava scores more
38%

Spartak Myjava at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II face Spartak Myjava (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West returns with Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II hosting Spartak Myjava. Match starts June 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.