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Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II vs Považská Bystrica — 3. liga - West 2020

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
CANC
14:00
Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
4/25/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 22Futbalový štadión TJ Imeľ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II28%
×Draw23%
Považská Bystrica49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.29
Považská Bystrica
1.77

Považská Bystrica creates 37% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.58
Považská Bystrica
2.24

allows per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.29
Považská Bystrica
1.00

finishing

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par
Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II ↓

Považská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or draw
51%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or Považská Bystrica
77%
Draw or Považská Bystrica
72%

Winning margin

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+
12%
Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals
72%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals
37%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals
14%
Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
83%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
53%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)
37%
Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Považská Bystrica away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 1.58 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Považská Bystrica attack 2.24 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more
28%
level
23%
Považská Bystrica scores more
49%

Považská Bystrica at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II host Považská Bystrica

April 25, 2021: Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II take on Považská Bystrica in 3. liga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II host Považská Bystrica at Futbalový štadión TJ Imeľ.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.