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Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II vs Nové Mesto nad Váhom — 3. liga - West 2020

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
FT
1 – 3
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
10/24/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 12Futbalový štadión na Levickej ulici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II49%
×Draw24%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.67
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.18

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 54 away

creates per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.58
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.07

allows per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.29
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.76

finishing

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par
Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II ↓

Nové Mesto nad Váhom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or draw
73%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
76%
Draw or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
51%

Winning margin

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+
26%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals
81%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals
50%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals
23%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
69%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
33%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)
64%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 1.58 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.67

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.07 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more
49%
level
24%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
27%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1–3 Nové Mesto nad Váhom

Nové Mesto nad Váhom beat Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3-1 in 3. liga - West on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión na Levickej ulici in Vráble.