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Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II vs Kalná nad Hronom — 3. liga - West 2020

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
6/17/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 32Futbalový štadión na Levickej ulici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II47%
×Draw25%
Kalná nad Hronom29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.60
Kalná nad Hronom
1.20

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 31 away

creates per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.58
Kalná nad Hronom
1.10

allows per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.29
Kalná nad Hronom
1.61

finishing

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par
Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or draw
71%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or Kalná nad Hronom
75%
Draw or Kalná nad Hronom
53%

Winning margin

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+
24%
Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals
80%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals
47%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals
22%
Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
70%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
34%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)
62%
Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 1.58 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more
47%
level
25%
Kalná nad Hronom scores more
29%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II vs Kalná nad Hronom

Kalná nad Hronom beat Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2-1 in 3. liga - West on June 17, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión na Levickej ulici in Vráble.