Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1–1 Beluša: Result & Stats

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Beluša

6/26/2021

3. liga - West · West - 15Futbalový štadión na Levickej ulici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II37%

×Draw25%

Beluša38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé IIExpected goals in this matchBeluša

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.45

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

1.42

Beluša

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 84 away

1.58

creates per match

1.60

1.29

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

1.58

Beluša

1.60

allows per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

1.29

Beluša

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par

Beluša+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II ↓

Beluša →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or draw

62%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or Beluša

75%

Draw or Beluša

63%

Winning margin

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+

17%

Beluša wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals

76%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals

41%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals

17%

Beluša 1+ goals

77%

Beluša 2+ goals

42%

Beluša 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)

49%

Beluša (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Beluša away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 1.58 + Beluša defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Beluša attack 1.60 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more

37%

level

25%

Beluša scores more

38%

Beluša at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Beluša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff