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Zitouna Chommakh vs Esperance Tunis — Cup 2019

Zitouna Chommakh
Zitouna Chommakh
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Esperance Tunis
Esperance Tunisadvanced
6/3/2022CupCup · Round of 32Stade de Chammakh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zitouna Chommakh9%
×Draw21%
Esperance Tunis70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zitouna Chommakh
0.49
Esperance Tunis
1.85

Esperance Tunis creates 278% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Zitouna Chommakh
0.67
Esperance Tunis
2.38

allows per match

Zitouna Chommakh
1.33
Esperance Tunis
0.31

finishing

Zitouna Chommakh+0.00on par
Esperance Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zitouna Chommakh ↓

Esperance Tunis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–118%
0–217%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zitouna Chommakh or draw
30%
Zitouna Chommakh or Esperance Tunis
79%
Draw or Esperance Tunis
91%

Winning margin

Zitouna Chommakh wins by 2+
2%
Esperance Tunis wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Zitouna Chommakh 1+ goals
39%
Zitouna Chommakh 2+ goals
9%
Zitouna Chommakh 3+ goals
1%
Esperance Tunis 1+ goals
84%
Esperance Tunis 2+ goals
55%
Esperance Tunis 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Zitouna Chommakh (draw refunded)
11%
Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zitouna Chommakh at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Esperance Tunis away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zitouna Chommakh attack 0.67 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.49

Esperance Tunis attack 2.38 + Zitouna Chommakh defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Zitouna Chommakh scores more
9%
level
21%
Esperance Tunis scores more
70%

Esperance Tunis at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Esperance Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Zitouna Chommakh 0–3 Esperance Tunis

Esperance Tunis beat Zitouna Chommakh 3-0 in Cup on June 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Chammakh in Chammakh.