Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Žitorađa vs Meševo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Žitorađa
Žitorađa
FT
0 – 1
Meševo
Meševo
11/5/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 13Stadion Žitorađa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Žitorađa28%
×Draw23%
Meševo49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žitorađa
1.34
Meševo
1.82

Meševo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Žitorađa
0.87
Meševo
1.04

allows per match

Žitorađa
2.60
Meševo
1.82

finishing

Žitorađa+0.00on par
Meševo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žitorađa ↓

Meševo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Žitorađa or draw
51%
Žitorađa or Meševo
77%
Draw or Meševo
72%

Winning margin

Žitorađa wins by 2+
12%
Meševo wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Žitorađa 1+ goals
74%
Žitorađa 2+ goals
39%
Žitorađa 3+ goals
15%
Meševo 1+ goals
84%
Meševo 2+ goals
54%
Meševo 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Žitorađa (draw refunded)
37%
Meševo (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žitorađa at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Meševo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žitorađa attack 0.87 + Meševo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.34

Meševo attack 1.04 + Žitorađa defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Žitorađa scores more
28%
level
23%
Meševo scores more
49%

Meševo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Meševo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Žitorađa vs Meševo

Meševo beat Žitorađa 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Žitorađa in Žitorađa.