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Žitorađa vs Budućnost Popovac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Žitorađa
Žitorađa
FT
0 – 1
Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
4/7/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 21Stadion Žitorađa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Žitorađa22%
×Draw22%
Budućnost Popovac57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žitorađa
1.16
Budućnost Popovac
2.00

Budućnost Popovac creates 72% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 87 away

creates per match

Žitorađa
0.87
Budućnost Popovac
1.40

allows per match

Žitorađa
2.60
Budućnost Popovac
1.45

finishing

Žitorađa+0.00on par
Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žitorađa ↓

Budućnost Popovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Žitorađa or draw
43%
Žitorađa or Budućnost Popovac
78%
Draw or Budućnost Popovac
78%

Winning margin

Žitorađa wins by 2+
8%
Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Žitorađa 1+ goals
69%
Žitorađa 2+ goals
32%
Žitorađa 3+ goals
11%
Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
86%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
59%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Žitorađa (draw refunded)
28%
Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žitorađa at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žitorađa attack 0.87 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.16

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Žitorađa defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Žitorađa scores more
22%
level
22%
Budućnost Popovac scores more
57%

Budućnost Popovac at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Žitorađa 0–1 Budućnost Popovac

Budućnost Popovac beat Žitorađa 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Žitorađa in Žitorađa.