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Žiri vs Sava Kranj — 3. SNL - West 2020

Žiri
Žiri
CANC
22:00
Sava Kranj
Sava Kranj
5/1/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Žiri24%
×Draw20%
Sava Kranj56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žiri
1.40
Sava Kranj
2.22

Sava Kranj creates 59% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

creates per match

Žiri
1.30
Sava Kranj
2.40

allows per match

Žiri
2.04
Sava Kranj
1.50

finishing

Žiri+0.00on par
Sava Kranj+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žiri ↓

Sava Kranj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Žiri or draw
44%
Žiri or Sava Kranj
80%
Draw or Sava Kranj
76%

Winning margin

Žiri wins by 2+
10%
Sava Kranj wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Žiri 1+ goals
75%
Žiri 2+ goals
41%
Žiri 3+ goals
17%
Sava Kranj 1+ goals
89%
Sava Kranj 2+ goals
65%
Sava Kranj 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Žiri (draw refunded)
30%
Sava Kranj (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žiri at home — creates 1.30, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

Sava Kranj away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žiri attack 1.30 + Sava Kranj defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sava Kranj attack 2.40 + Žiri defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Žiri scores more
24%
level
20%
Sava Kranj scores more
56%

Sava Kranj at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sava Kranj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Žiri vs Sava Kranj — Match Preview

Žiri face Sava Kranj on May 1, 2021 in this 3. SNL - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.