Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Žiri vs Postojna — 3. SNL - West 2020

Žiri
Žiri
CANC
13:00
Postojna
Postojna
4/17/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Žiri42%
×Draw24%
Postojna34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žiri
1.59
Postojna
1.41

Žiri creates 13% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

creates per match

Žiri
1.30
Postojna
0.78

allows per match

Žiri
2.04
Postojna
1.89

finishing

Žiri+0.00on par
Postojna+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žiri ↓

Postojna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Žiri or draw
66%
Žiri or Postojna
76%
Draw or Postojna
58%

Winning margin

Žiri wins by 2+
21%
Postojna wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Žiri 1+ goals
80%
Žiri 2+ goals
47%
Žiri 3+ goals
21%
Postojna 1+ goals
76%
Postojna 2+ goals
41%
Postojna 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Žiri (draw refunded)
55%
Postojna (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žiri at home — creates 1.30, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

Postojna away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žiri attack 1.30 + Postojna defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.59

Postojna attack 0.78 + Žiri defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Žiri scores more
42%
level
24%
Postojna scores more
34%

Žiri at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Žiri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Žiri vs Postojna — Match Preview

Žiri face Postojna on April 17, 2021 in this 3. SNL - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.