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Zira vs Səbail — Premyer Liqa 2019

Zira
Zira
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Səbail
Səbail
5/25/2024Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 36Zirə qəsəbə stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Zira53%
×Draw25%
Səbail22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zira
1.59
Səbail
0.93

Zira creates 71% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 92 away

creates per match

Zira
1.30
Səbail
0.82

allows per match

Zira
1.03
Səbail
1.89

finishing

Zira+0.00on par
Səbail+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zira ↓

Səbail →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zira or draw
78%
Zira or Səbail
75%
Draw or Səbail
47%

Winning margin

Zira wins by 2+
28%
Səbail wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zira 1+ goals
80%
Zira 2+ goals
47%
Zira 3+ goals
21%
Səbail 1+ goals
61%
Səbail 2+ goals
24%
Səbail 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zira (draw refunded)
71%
Səbail (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zira at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 109 matches

Səbail away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.89 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zira attack 1.30 + Səbail defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.59

Səbail attack 0.82 + Zira defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zira scores more
53%
level
25%
Səbail scores more
22%

Zira at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zira vs Səbail

Zira beat Səbail 1-0 in Premyer Liqa on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Zirə qəsəbə stadionu in Zirya.