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Zira vs Qarabag — Premyer Liqa 2019

Zira
Zira
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Qarabag
Qarabag
12/24/2023Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 18Zirə qəsəbə stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Zira24%
×Draw25%
Qarabag51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zira
1.00
Qarabag
1.59

Qarabag creates 59% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 110 away

creates per match

Zira
1.30
Qarabag
2.15

allows per match

Zira
1.03
Qarabag
0.71

finishing

Zira+0.00on par
Qarabag+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zira ↓

Qarabag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zira or draw
49%
Zira or Qarabag
75%
Draw or Qarabag
76%

Winning margin

Zira wins by 2+
9%
Qarabag wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Zira 1+ goals
63%
Zira 2+ goals
26%
Zira 3+ goals
8%
Qarabag 1+ goals
80%
Qarabag 2+ goals
47%
Qarabag 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Zira (draw refunded)
32%
Qarabag (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zira at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 109 matches

Qarabag away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.71 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zira attack 1.30 + Qarabag defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.00

Qarabag attack 2.15 + Zira defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zira scores more
24%
level
25%
Qarabag scores more
51%

Qarabag at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zira 0 – 1 Qarabag

Qarabag beat Zira 1-0 in Premyer Liqa on December 24, 2023.

The match was played at Zirə qəsəbə stadionu in Zirya.