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Qarabag vs Zira — Premyer Liqa 2019

Qarabag
Qarabag
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zira
Zira
4/6/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 29Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Qarabag58%
×Draw23%
Zira19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qarabag
1.79
Zira
0.90

Qarabag creates 99% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 108 away

creates per match

Qarabag
2.55
Zira
1.15

allows per match

Qarabag
0.64
Zira
1.03

finishing

Qarabag+0.00on par
Zira+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qarabag ↓

Zira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Qarabag or draw
81%
Qarabag or Zira
77%
Draw or Zira
42%

Winning margin

Qarabag wins by 2+
33%
Zira wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Qarabag 1+ goals
83%
Qarabag 2+ goals
53%
Qarabag 3+ goals
26%
Zira 1+ goals
59%
Zira 2+ goals
23%
Zira 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Qarabag (draw refunded)
76%
Zira (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qarabag at home — creates 2.55, concedes 0.64 · 112 matches

Zira away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qarabag attack 2.55 + Zira defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.79

Zira attack 1.15 + Qarabag defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Qarabag scores more
58%
level
23%
Zira scores more
19%

Qarabag at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premyer Liqa: Qarabag 1–0 Zira

Qarabag beat Zira 1-0 in Premyer Liqa on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu in Baku.