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Zira vs Paide — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Zira
Zira
Preview
16:00
Paide
Paide
7/30/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundKapital Bank Arena
64%
Zira
model favours
64%21%16%

Paide have scored in 11 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Zira64%
×Draw21%
Paide16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zira
2.04
Paide
0.90

Zira creates 127% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Zira
1.80
Paide
1.00

allows per match

Zira
0.80
Paide
2.27

finishing

Zira+0.00on par
Paide+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zira ↓

Paide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zira or draw
84%
Zira or Paide
79%
Draw or Paide
36%

Winning margin

Zira wins by 2+
39%
Paide wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zira 1+ goals
87%
Zira 2+ goals
60%
Zira 3+ goals
33%
Paide 1+ goals
59%
Paide 2+ goals
23%
Paide 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zira (draw refunded)
80%
Paide (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zira at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Paide away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zira attack 1.80 + Paide defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.04

Paide attack 1.00 + Zira defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Zira scores more
64%
level
21%
Paide scores more
16%

Zira at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Zira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Paide score first in only 22% of matches
  • Zira score first in 67% of matches
  • Both teams score in 70% of Paide’s matches
  • Paide win just 25% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Zira
LWWLW
Paide
WLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zira face Paide (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League returns with Zira hosting Paide. Match starts July 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Zira host Paide at Kapital Bank Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.