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Paide vs Zira — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Paide
Paide
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zira
Zira
P. A. Cham 87'
7/23/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundParnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Paide48%
×Draw26%
Zira26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide
1.53
Zira
1.06

Paide creates 44% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Paide
1.56
Zira
1.00

allows per match

Paide
1.11
Zira
1.50

finishing

Paide+0.00on par
Zira+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide ↓

Zira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Paide or draw
74%
Paide or Zira
74%
Draw or Zira
52%

Winning margin

Paide wins by 2+
24%
Zira wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Paide 1+ goals
78%
Paide 2+ goals
45%
Paide 3+ goals
20%
Zira 1+ goals
65%
Zira 2+ goals
29%
Zira 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Paide (draw refunded)
65%
Zira (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Zira away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide attack 1.56 + Zira defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.53

Zira attack 1.00 + Paide defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Paide scores more
48%
level
26%
Zira scores more
26%

Paide at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Paide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
S. Luts
60'
I. Ibrahimli← Guima
60'
C. Digbeu← Martins Junior
62'
N. Baranov
75'
A. Mutsinzi← I. Djibrilla
75'
G. Papunashvili← Vieirinha
76'
A. Seydiyev
77'
Daniel Cabral← M. P. Sohna
78'
H. Anier← A. Badamosi
78'
H. Ojamaa← M. Miller
78'
P. A. Cham← S. Luts
86'
K. Piht← D. Luts
87'
P. A. Cham↳ H. Anier
89'
E. Bogomolskiy← E. Aydin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Paide 1–0 Zira

Paide beat Zira 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 23, 2026.

Goals: P. A. Cham (87').

The match was played at Parnu Rannastaadion in Parnu.