Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zira vs Neftchi Baku — Premyer Liqa 2019

Zira
Zira
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
2/10/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 22Zirə qəsəbə stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Zira36%
×Draw28%
Neftchi Baku36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zira
1.20
Neftchi Baku
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 108 away

creates per match

Zira
1.30
Neftchi Baku
1.38

allows per match

Zira
1.03
Neftchi Baku
1.09

finishing

Zira+0.00on par
Neftchi Baku+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zira ↓

Neftchi Baku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zira or draw
64%
Zira or Neftchi Baku
72%
Draw or Neftchi Baku
64%

Winning margin

Zira wins by 2+
15%
Neftchi Baku wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zira 1+ goals
70%
Zira 2+ goals
34%
Zira 3+ goals
12%
Neftchi Baku 1+ goals
70%
Neftchi Baku 2+ goals
34%
Neftchi Baku 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zira (draw refunded)
50%
Neftchi Baku (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zira at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 109 matches

Neftchi Baku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zira attack 1.30 + Neftchi Baku defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Neftchi Baku attack 1.38 + Zira defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Zira scores more
36%
level
28%
Neftchi Baku scores more
36%

Zira at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Zira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zira vs Neftchi Baku

Neftchi Baku beat Zira 2-1 in Premyer Liqa on February 10, 2025.

The match was played at Zirə qəsəbə stadionu in Zirya.