Zimbru 3–3 Sfîntul Gheorghe: Result & Stats | Cupa

Zimbru

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Sfîntul Gheorghe

E. Alaribe 87'

D. Dedechko 55', 33'

M. Căruntu 63', 4'

C. Calaidjoglu 45'

4/5/2023

Cupa · Quarter-finalsStadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zimbru34%

×Draw20%

Sfîntul Gheorghe46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZimbruExpected goals in this matchSfîntul Gheorghe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

2.29

Zimbru

1.95

Sfîntul Gheorghe

2.29

Sfîntul Gheorghe creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

3.15

creates per match

3.50

1.08

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Zimbru

3.15

Sfîntul Gheorghe

3.50

allows per match

Zimbru

1.08

Sfîntul Gheorghe

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zimbru+0.00on par

Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zimbru ↓

Sfîntul Gheorghe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Zimbru or draw

54%

Zimbru or Sfîntul Gheorghe

80%

Draw or Sfîntul Gheorghe

66%

Winning margin

Zimbru wins by 2+

18%

Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Zimbru 1+ goals

86%

Zimbru 2+ goals

58%

Zimbru 3+ goals

31%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals

90%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals

66%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Zimbru (draw refunded)

42%

Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zimbru at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zimbru attack 3.15 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.95

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 3.50 + Zimbru defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zimbru scores more

34%

level

20%

Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more

46%

Sfîntul Gheorghe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sfîntul Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

12'

33'

45'

55'

63'

87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff