Zimbru 1–1 Sfîntul Gheorghe: Result & Stats

Zimbru

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sfîntul Gheorghe

E. Sidorenco 17'

N. Solodovnicov 31'

9/25/2021

Super Liga · Round 12Stadionul CPTF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Zimbru41%

×Draw25%

Sfîntul Gheorghe34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZimbruExpected goals in this matchSfîntul Gheorghe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.34

Zimbru

1.51

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.34

Zimbru creates 13% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 56 away

1.61

creates per match

1.46

1.22

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Zimbru

1.61

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.46

allows per match

Zimbru

1.22

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zimbru+0.00on par

Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zimbru ↓

Sfîntul Gheorghe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zimbru or draw

66%

Zimbru or Sfîntul Gheorghe

75%

Draw or Sfîntul Gheorghe

59%

Winning margin

Zimbru wins by 2+

20%

Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zimbru 1+ goals

78%

Zimbru 2+ goals

44%

Zimbru 3+ goals

19%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals

74%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals

39%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Zimbru (draw refunded)

55%

Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zimbru at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.22 · 98 matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.41 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zimbru attack 1.61 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 1.46 + Zimbru defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zimbru scores more

41%

level

25%

Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more

34%

Zimbru at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zimbru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

31'

32'

40'

46'

46'

A. Vacarciuc← O. Ebenezer

46'

A. Osipov← S. Svinarenco

54'

M. Ihekuna← T. Lungu

56'

64'

I. Damaşcan← V. Stînă

72'

V. Plămădeală← M. Pyrogov

72'

F. Mompremier← I. Drăgan

76'

P. Neagu← E. Cociuc

85'

88'

Zimbru

Sfîntul

25

Calancea

19

▼

97

3

17

32

98

▼

Stînă

13

▼

Lungu

99

▼

Pyrogov

18

▼

Drăgan

88

⚽

12

3

28

27

17

11

⚽

Sidorenco

26

Vremea

8

▼

Cociuc

30

Bejan

14

▼

Yahaya

18

▼

Ebenezer

Manager: V. Goian

46'▲A. Pătraş←▼S. Yahaya

46'▲A. Vacarciuc←▼O. Ebenezer

76'▲P. Neagu←▼E. Cociuc

Zimbru substitutes

10Pătraş23Vacarciuc7Neagu1Chirinciuc4Zavalișca5Pavalachi6Răileanu9Dani19Kuittinen

Manager: S. Cebotari

46'▲A. Osipov←▼S. Svinarenco

54'▲M. Ihekuna←▼T. Lungu

64'▲I. Damaşcan←▼V. Stînă

72'▲V. Plămădeală←▼M. Pyrogov

72'▲F. Mompremier←▼I. Drăgan

Sfîntul Gheorghe substitutes

8Osipov15Ihekuna23Damaşcan5Plămădeală11Mompremier4Litviakov14Owusu16Borș21Slivca22Ibrahim1Railean

Super Liga: Zimbru 1–1 Sfîntul Gheorghe

Zimbru and Sfîntul Gheorghe drew 1-1 in Super Liga on September 25, 2021.

Goals: E. Sidorenco (17'), N. Solodovnicov (31').

The match was played at Stadionul CPTF in Chişinău.

Zimbru vs Sfîntul Gheorghe — Super Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super Liga: Zimbru 1–1 Sfîntul Gheorghe