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Zimbru vs Sfîntul Gheorghe — Super Liga 2026

Zimbru
Zimbru
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sfîntul Gheorghe
Sfîntul Gheorghe
4/21/2019Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 6Stadionul Zimbru (Chişinău)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Zimbru41%
×Draw25%
Sfîntul Gheorghe33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zimbru
1.50
Sfîntul Gheorghe
1.32

Zimbru creates 14% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 57 away

creates per match

Zimbru
1.60
Sfîntul Gheorghe
1.44

allows per match

Zimbru
1.20
Sfîntul Gheorghe
1.40

finishing

Zimbru+0.00on par
Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zimbru ↓

Sfîntul Gheorghe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zimbru or draw
67%
Zimbru or Sfîntul Gheorghe
75%
Draw or Sfîntul Gheorghe
59%

Winning margin

Zimbru wins by 2+
20%
Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zimbru 1+ goals
78%
Zimbru 2+ goals
44%
Zimbru 3+ goals
19%
Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals
73%
Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals
38%
Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zimbru (draw refunded)
55%
Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zimbru at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zimbru attack 1.60 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 1.44 + Zimbru defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zimbru scores more
41%
level
25%
Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more
33%

Zimbru at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zimbru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zimbru vs Sfîntul Gheorghe

Sfîntul Gheorghe beat Zimbru 2-1 in Super Liga on April 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Zimbru (Chişinău).