Zimbru 7–0 Ocniţa: Result & Stats | Cupa

Zimbru

7 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Ocniţa

10/31/2023

Cupa · Round of 16Baza Zimbru 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zimbru62%

×Draw19%

Ocniţa19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZimbruExpected goals in this matchOcniţa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.29

Zimbru

2.45

Ocniţa

1.29

Zimbru creates 90% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

3.15

creates per match

1.50

1.08

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Zimbru

3.15

Ocniţa

1.50

allows per match

Zimbru

1.08

Ocniţa

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zimbru+0.00on par

Ocniţa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zimbru ↓

Ocniţa →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Zimbru or draw

81%

Zimbru or Ocniţa

81%

Draw or Ocniţa

38%

Winning margin

Zimbru wins by 2+

41%

Ocniţa wins by 2+

Team goals

Zimbru 1+ goals

91%

Zimbru 2+ goals

70%

Zimbru 3+ goals

44%

Ocniţa 1+ goals

72%

Ocniţa 2+ goals

37%

Ocniţa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zimbru (draw refunded)

77%

Ocniţa (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zimbru at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Ocniţa away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zimbru attack 3.15 + Ocniţa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.45

Ocniţa attack 1.50 + Zimbru defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zimbru scores more

62%

level

19%

Ocniţa scores more

19%

Zimbru at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zimbru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff