Zimbru 5–3 EFA Visoca: Result & Stats | Cupa

Zimbru

5 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

EFA Visoca

A. Ordóñez 90+5', 90+2', 45+1'

Iu Ranera 88'

G. Dahan 60'

V. Pașa 30', 22'

A. Stratan 19'

3/1/2025

Cupa · Round of 16Stadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zimbru62%

×Draw17%

EFA Visoca21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZimbruExpected goals in this matchEFA Visoca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.08

1.79

Zimbru

3.08

EFA Visoca

1.79

Zimbru creates 72% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

3.15

creates per match

2.50

1.08

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Zimbru

3.15

EFA Visoca

2.50

allows per match

Zimbru

1.08

EFA Visoca

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zimbru+0.00on par

EFA Visoca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zimbru ↓

EFA Visoca →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Zimbru or draw

79%

Zimbru or EFA Visoca

83%

Draw or EFA Visoca

38%

Winning margin

Zimbru wins by 2+

43%

EFA Visoca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Zimbru 1+ goals

95%

Zimbru 2+ goals

81%

Zimbru 3+ goals

58%

EFA Visoca 1+ goals

83%

EFA Visoca 2+ goals

53%

EFA Visoca 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Zimbru (draw refunded)

75%

EFA Visoca (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zimbru at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

EFA Visoca away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zimbru attack 3.15 + EFA Visoca defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.08

EFA Visoca attack 2.50 + Zimbru defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zimbru scores more

62%

level

17%

EFA Visoca scores more

21%

Zimbru at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zimbru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

22'

30'

45+1'

60'

88'

90+2'

90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff