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Zimbru vs CSF Bălți — Super Liga 2026

Zimbru
Zimbru
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
CSF Bălți
CSF Bălți
5/2/2026Super LigaSuper Liga · Championship Group - 8Stadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Zimbru49%
×Draw25%
CSF Bălți26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zimbru
1.60
CSF Bălți
1.10

Zimbru creates 45% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 69 away

creates per match

Zimbru
1.60
CSF Bălți
1.01

allows per match

Zimbru
1.20
CSF Bălți
1.61

finishing

Zimbru+0.00on par
CSF Bălți+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zimbru ↓

CSF Bălți →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zimbru or draw
74%
Zimbru or CSF Bălți
75%
Draw or CSF Bălți
51%

Winning margin

Zimbru wins by 2+
25%
CSF Bălți wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zimbru 1+ goals
80%
Zimbru 2+ goals
47%
Zimbru 3+ goals
22%
CSF Bălți 1+ goals
67%
CSF Bălți 2+ goals
30%
CSF Bălți 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zimbru (draw refunded)
65%
CSF Bălți (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zimbru at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

CSF Bălți away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zimbru attack 1.60 + CSF Bălți defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

CSF Bălți attack 1.01 + Zimbru defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zimbru scores more
49%
level
25%
CSF Bălți scores more
26%

Zimbru at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zimbru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Zimbru 4–1 CSF Bălți

Zimbru beat CSF Bălți 4-1 in Super Liga on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Stadionul Zimbru.