Zimbru 3–1 Codru Lozova: Result & Stats

Zimbru

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Codru Lozova

Ş. Burghiu 60'

I. Kurata 49' (OG)

V. Cemîrtan 47' (pen)

A. Dhamo 37'

7/21/2020

Super Liga · Round 5Stadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Zimbru69%

×Draw18%

Codru Lozova13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZimbruExpected goals in this matchCodru Lozova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

0.84

Zimbru

2.24

Codru Lozova

0.84

Zimbru creates 167% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 30 away

1.61

creates per match

0.47

1.22

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Zimbru

1.61

Codru Lozova

0.47

allows per match

Zimbru

1.22

Codru Lozova

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zimbru+0.00on par

Codru Lozova+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zimbru ↓

Codru Lozova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Zimbru or draw

87%

Zimbru or Codru Lozova

82%

Draw or Codru Lozova

31%

Winning margin

Zimbru wins by 2+

45%

Codru Lozova wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Zimbru 1+ goals

89%

Zimbru 2+ goals

65%

Zimbru 3+ goals

38%

Codru Lozova 1+ goals

57%

Codru Lozova 2+ goals

21%

Codru Lozova 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Zimbru (draw refunded)

84%

Codru Lozova (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zimbru at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.22 · 98 matches

Codru Lozova away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zimbru attack 1.61 + Codru Lozova defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.24

Codru Lozova attack 0.47 + Zimbru defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Zimbru scores more

69%

level

18%

Codru Lozova scores more

13%

Zimbru at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Zimbru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

V. Cojocaru

36'

37'

45'

45+3'

47'

47'

V. CemîrtanPenalty

49'

I. KurataOwn goal

60'

Ş. Burghiu

67'

A. Ciopa

68'

D. Doroftei← I. Oprea

70'

S. Yahaya← P. Neagu

83'

C. Dani← V. Cemîrtan

90'

A. Barabaș← B. Traore

Zimbru

Codru

1

Butuc

11

Mamaliga

23

Chișca

19

🥅

Kurata

2

Cojocari

28

▼

Oprea

44

⚽

34

30

9

10

12

3

⚽

4

6

23

8

7

20

10

▼

Neagu

9

⚽

▼

Cemîrtan

11

▼

Traore

Manager: V. Goian

70'▲S. Yahaya←▼P. Neagu

83'▲C. Dani←▼V. Cemîrtan

90'▲A. Barabaș←▼B. Traore

Zimbru substitutes

14Yahaya22Dani19Barabaș5Brînzaniuc15Zavalișca16Gău17Răileanu25Kovalov

Manager: S. Chirilov

68'▲D. Doroftei←▼I. Oprea

Codru Lozova substitutes

99Doroftei90Jalbă16Dragomeretchii

Match Recap: Zimbru vs Codru Lozova

Zimbru beat Codru Lozova 3-1 in Super Liga on July 21, 2020.

Goals: A. Dhamo (37'), V. Cemîrtan (47' pen), I. Kurata (49' o.g.), Ş. Burghiu (60').

The match was played at Stadionul Zimbru in Chişinău.

Zimbru vs Codru Lozova — Super Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Zimbru vs Codru Lozova