Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zimbabwe vs Angola — Friendlies 2026

Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe
Pens
2 – 2
Angola
Angola
3/24/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Levy Mwanawasa Stadium (Ndola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zimbabwe31%
×Draw48%
Angola20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zimbabwe
0.54
Angola
0.38

Zimbabwe creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zimbabwe
0.25
Angola
0.50

allows per match

Zimbabwe
0.25
Angola
0.83

finishing

Zimbabwe+0.00on par
Angola+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Under
  • Under93
  • Over7

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

87%No
  • No87
  • Yes13

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zimbabwe ↓

Angola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–040%
0–115%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–12%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (40%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
60%40%1.5
23%77%2.5
7%93%3.5
1%99%4.5
0%100%

Double chance

Zimbabwe or draw
80%
Zimbabwe or Angola
52%
Draw or Angola
69%

Winning margin

Zimbabwe wins by 2+
7%
Angola wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zimbabwe 1+ goals
42%
Zimbabwe 2+ goals
10%
Zimbabwe 3+ goals
2%
Angola 1+ goals
32%
Angola 2+ goals
6%
Angola 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Zimbabwe (draw refunded)
61%
Angola (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
5%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zimbabwe at home — creates 0.25, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Angola away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zimbabwe attack 0.25 + Angola defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.54

Angola attack 0.50 + Zimbabwe defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 31%?"

Zimbabwe scores more
31%
level
48%
Angola scores more
20%

Zimbabwe at 31% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 31% does not mean "Zimbabwe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Zimbabwe 2–2 Angola

Zimbabwe and Angola drew 2-2 in Friendlies on March 24, 2018.

The match was played at Levy Mwanawasa Stadium (Ndola).