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Žilina W vs Tatran Prešov W — I Liga - Women 2020

Žilina W
Žilina W
FT
0 – 4
Tatran Prešov W
Tatran Prešov W
9/14/2024I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 6Futbalový štadión Strážov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Žilina W36%
×Draw20%
Tatran Prešov W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žilina W
2.00
Tatran Prešov W
2.22

Tatran Prešov W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 39 away

creates per match

Žilina W
1.79
Tatran Prešov W
1.79

allows per match

Žilina W
2.65
Tatran Prešov W
2.21

finishing

Žilina W+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina W ↓

Tatran Prešov W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Žilina W or draw
56%
Žilina W or Tatran Prešov W
80%
Draw or Tatran Prešov W
64%

Winning margin

Žilina W wins by 2+
19%
Tatran Prešov W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Žilina W 1+ goals
86%
Žilina W 2+ goals
59%
Žilina W 3+ goals
32%
Tatran Prešov W 1+ goals
89%
Tatran Prešov W 2+ goals
65%
Tatran Prešov W 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Žilina W (draw refunded)
45%
Tatran Prešov W (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina W at home — creates 1.79, concedes 2.65 · 68 matches

Tatran Prešov W away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.21 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina W attack 1.79 + Tatran Prešov W defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.00

Tatran Prešov W attack 1.79 + Žilina W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Žilina W scores more
36%
level
20%
Tatran Prešov W scores more
44%

Tatran Prešov W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tatran Prešov W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Žilina W vs Tatran Prešov W

Tatran Prešov W beat Žilina W 4-0 in I Liga - Women on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Strážov in Žilina.