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Žilina W vs Nitra W — I Liga - Women 2020

Žilina W
Žilina W
CANC
13:00
Nitra W
Nitra W
11/1/2020I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 8Futbalový štadión Strážov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Žilina W44%
×Draw19%
Nitra W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žilina W
2.46
Nitra W
2.23

Žilina W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

creates per match

Žilina W
1.79
Nitra W
1.80

allows per match

Žilina W
2.65
Nitra W
3.13

finishing

Žilina W+0.00on par
Nitra W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina W ↓

Nitra W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Žilina W or draw
64%
Žilina W or Nitra W
81%
Draw or Nitra W
56%

Winning margin

Žilina W wins by 2+
26%
Nitra W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Žilina W 1+ goals
91%
Žilina W 2+ goals
70%
Žilina W 3+ goals
44%
Nitra W 1+ goals
89%
Nitra W 2+ goals
65%
Nitra W 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Žilina W (draw refunded)
55%
Nitra W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina W at home — creates 1.79, concedes 2.65 · 68 matches

Nitra W away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina W attack 1.79 + Nitra W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.46

Nitra W attack 1.80 + Žilina W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Žilina W scores more
44%
level
19%
Nitra W scores more
36%

Žilina W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Žilina W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Žilina W face Nitra W (I Liga - Women)

I Liga - Women returns with Žilina W hosting Nitra W. Match starts November 1, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Žilina W host Nitra W at Futbalový štadión Strážov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.