Žilina W 1–3 GFC Topoľčany W: Result & Stats

Žilina W

FT

1 – 3

GFC Topoľčany W

11/19/2022

I Liga - Women · Round 14Futbalový štadión Strážov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Žilina W57%

×Draw18%

GFC Topoľčany W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Žilina WExpected goals in this matchGFC Topoľčany W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

1.92

Žilina W

2.90

GFC Topoľčany W

1.92

Žilina W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 26 away

1.79

creates per match

1.19

2.65

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Žilina W

1.79

GFC Topoľčany W

1.19

allows per match

Žilina W

2.65

GFC Topoľčany W

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žilina W+0.00on par

GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina W ↓

GFC Topoľčany W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Žilina W or draw

75%

Žilina W or GFC Topoľčany W

82%

Draw or GFC Topoľčany W

43%

Winning margin

Žilina W wins by 2+

38%

GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Žilina W 1+ goals

94%

Žilina W 2+ goals

78%

Žilina W 3+ goals

54%

GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals

85%

GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals

57%

GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Žilina W (draw refunded)

70%

GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina W at home — creates 1.79, concedes 2.65 · 68 matches

GFC Topoľčany W away — creates 1.19, concedes 4.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina W attack 1.79 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.90

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.19 + Žilina W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Žilina W scores more

57%

level

18%

GFC Topoľčany W scores more

25%

Žilina W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Žilina W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff