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GFC Topoľčany W vs Žilina W — I Liga - Women 2020

GFC Topoľčany W
GFC Topoľčany W
FT
2 – 1
Žilina W
Žilina W
6/3/2023I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Relegation Round - 9Futbalové ihrisko OFK Tesáre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

GFC Topoľčany W63%
×Draw18%
Žilina W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GFC Topoľčany W
2.56
Žilina W
1.36

GFC Topoľčany W creates 88% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 68 away

creates per match

GFC Topoľčany W
1.62
Žilina W
1.19

allows per match

GFC Topoľčany W
1.54
Žilina W
3.51

finishing

GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par
Žilina W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFC Topoľčany W ↓

Žilina W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

GFC Topoľčany W or draw
81%
GFC Topoľčany W or Žilina W
82%
Draw or Žilina W
37%

Winning margin

GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+
42%
Žilina W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals
92%
GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals
72%
GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals
46%
Žilina W 1+ goals
74%
Žilina W 2+ goals
39%
Žilina W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)
77%
Žilina W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFC Topoľčany W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Žilina W away — creates 1.19, concedes 3.51 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.62 + Žilina W defence 3.51 → ÷2 → 2.56

Žilina W attack 1.19 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

GFC Topoľčany W scores more
63%
level
18%
Žilina W scores more
19%

GFC Topoľčany W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "GFC Topoľčany W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GFC Topoľčany W vs Žilina W

GFC Topoľčany W beat Žilina W 2-1 in I Liga - Women on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalové ihrisko OFK Tesáre in Tesáre.