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Žilina W vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W — I Liga - Women 2020

Žilina W
Žilina W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
3/22/2025I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Relegation Round - 1Futbalový štadión Strážov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Žilina W56%
×Draw18%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žilina W
2.84
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.94

Žilina W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 55 away

creates per match

Žilina W
1.79
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.22

allows per match

Žilina W
2.65
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
3.89

finishing

Žilina W+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina W ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Žilina W or draw
74%
Žilina W or Dukla Banská Bystrica W
82%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica W
44%

Winning margin

Žilina W wins by 2+
37%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Žilina W 1+ goals
94%
Žilina W 2+ goals
77%
Žilina W 3+ goals
53%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 1+ goals
86%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2+ goals
58%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Žilina W (draw refunded)
68%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina W at home — creates 1.79, concedes 2.65 · 68 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica W away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina W attack 1.79 + Dukla Banská Bystrica W defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 2.84

Dukla Banská Bystrica W attack 1.22 + Žilina W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Žilina W scores more
56%
level
18%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W scores more
26%

Žilina W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Žilina W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Žilina W vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W

Žilina W beat Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2-1 in I Liga - Women on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Strážov in Žilina.