Žilina 1–0 Tatran Prešov: Result & Stats

Žilina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tatran Prešov

F. Kasa 45'

8/3/2025

League #332 · Round 2Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Žilina55%

×Draw22%

Tatran Prešov23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŽilinaExpected goals in this matchTatran Prešov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.17

Žilina

1.92

Tatran Prešov

1.17

Žilina creates 64% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

0.50

1.83

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Žilina

2.33

Tatran Prešov

0.50

allows per match

Žilina

1.83

Tatran Prešov

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žilina+0.00on par

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina ↓

Tatran Prešov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Žilina or draw

77%

Žilina or Tatran Prešov

78%

Draw or Tatran Prešov

45%

Winning margin

Žilina wins by 2+

32%

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Žilina 1+ goals

85%

Žilina 2+ goals

57%

Žilina 3+ goals

30%

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals

69%

Tatran Prešov 2+ goals

33%

Tatran Prešov 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Žilina (draw refunded)

70%

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina attack 2.33 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Tatran Prešov attack 0.50 + Žilina defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Žilina scores more

55%

level

22%

Tatran Prešov scores more

23%

Žilina at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Žilina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

F. Kasa

Žilina · D

8.5

Match Events

5'

Denis Potoma

21'

Martin Regáli

31'

Michal Siplak

45'

F. Kasa↳ M. Fasko

46'

Kyrylo Sigeev

46'

K. Sigeev← D. Potoma

60'

A. Kapralik← M. Fasko

60'

M. Kacer← P. Ilko

60'

L. Sagna← L. Wolsztynski

60'

A. Masaryk← M. Regali

67'

71'

71'

73'

73'

79'

80'

A. Narimanidze← M. Roginic

90+5'

Miroslav Káčer

90'

Ridwan Sanusi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ŽilinaTatran

Overview

57%Possession43%

17Total Shots7

1.22Expected Goals (xG)0.57

5Corners4

11Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots7

4On Target0

7Off Target5

6Blocked2

11Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

478Total Passes355

398Accurate Passes254

83%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards5

4Offsides0