Žilina U19 1–1 København U19: Result & Stats

Žilina U19

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

København U19

M. Pekelský 120+6' (pen)

M. Mynář 120+2' (pen)

M. Sauer 10'

N. Blicher 120+7' (pen)

H. Németh 120+5' (pen)

Q. Tchicamboud 120+3' (pen)

T. Birch 120+1' (pen)

A. Chiakha 6'

2/27/2024

UEFA Youth League · Round of 16Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Žilina U1936%

×Draw22%

København U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Žilina U19Expected goals in this matchKøbenhavn U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.90

Žilina U19

1.75

København U19

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

2.40

creates per match

2.11

1.70

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Žilina U19

2.40

København U19

2.11

allows per match

Žilina U19

1.70

København U19

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žilina U19+0.00on par

København U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina U19 ↓

København U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Žilina U19 or draw

58%

Žilina U19 or København U19

78%

Draw or København U19

64%

Winning margin

Žilina U19 wins by 2+

18%

København U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Žilina U19 1+ goals

83%

Žilina U19 2+ goals

52%

Žilina U19 3+ goals

25%

København U19 1+ goals

85%

København U19 2+ goals

56%

København U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Žilina U19 (draw refunded)

46%

København U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina U19 at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

København U19 away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina U19 attack 2.40 + København U19 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.75

København U19 attack 2.11 + Žilina U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Žilina U19 scores more

36%

level

22%

København U19 scores more

42%

København U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "København U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

C. Olsson

6'

A. Chiakha↳ E. Højlund

10'

M. Sauer↳ B. Badjie

23'

O. Hojer

64'

A. Oravec

66'

V. Atanasijević← A. Drame

69'

R. Risnæs← G. Guðmundsson

69'

N. Jönsson← E. Højlund

76'

T. Pališčák← T. Hranica

76'

M. Pekelský← F. Kóša

85'

Q. Tchicamboud← O. Højer

89'

K. Stručka← S. Šamaj

90+5'

W. Glindtvad← A. Halsgaard

120+1'

T. BirchPenalty

120+2'

M. MynářPenalty

120+3'

Q. TchicamboudPenalty

120+4'

V. VaľkoMissed penalty

120+5'

H. NémethPenalty

120+6'

M. PekelskýPenalty

120+7'

N. BlicherPenalty

120+8'

V. AtanasijevićMissed penalty

Žilina

København

1

Buur

3

⚽

Birch

2

Bidstrup

4

▼

Halsgaard

15

Olsson

12

⚽

Blicher

11

▼

Guðmundss

6

⚽

Németh

7

▼

Højer

8

A

▼

Højlund

9

⚽

Chiakha

1

Badžgoň

14

Jaššo

4

⚽

Mynář

5

Oravec

13

A

Badjie

6

▼

Drame

8

⚽

Sauer

2

▼

Hranica

12

▼

Šamaj

10

Vaľko

17

▼

Kóša

Manager: I. Belák

66'▲V. Atanasijević←▼A. Drame

76'▲T. Pališčák←▼T. Hranica

76'▲M. Pekelský←▼F. Kóša

89'▲K. Stručka←▼S. Šamaj

Žilina U19 substitutes

9Atanasijević15Pališčák7Pekelský20Stručka18Šimun90Jokl3Rehák

Manager: M. Bisgaard

69'▲R. Risnæs←▼G. Guðmundsson

69'▲N. Jönsson←▼E. Højlund

85'▲Q. Tchicamboud←▼O. Højer

90+5'▲W. Glindtvad←▼A. Halsgaard

København U19 substitutes

14Risnæs17Jönsson19Tchicamboud22Glindtvad13Clasen31Breum-Harild24Moalem