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Žilina U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Žilina U19
Žilina U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
2/7/2024UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Play-offsŠtadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Žilina U1947%
×Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žilina U19
2.12
Borussia Dortmund U19
1.72

Žilina U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

Žilina U19
2.40
Borussia Dortmund U19
1.74

allows per match

Žilina U19
1.70
Borussia Dortmund U19
1.83

finishing

Žilina U19+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Žilina U19 or draw
68%
Žilina U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19
79%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19
53%

Winning margin

Žilina U19 wins by 2+
27%
Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Žilina U19 1+ goals
88%
Žilina U19 2+ goals
62%
Žilina U19 3+ goals
35%
Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
82%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
51%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Žilina U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina U19 at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina U19 attack 2.40 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.12

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 1.74 + Žilina U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Žilina U19 scores more
47%
level
21%
Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
32%

Žilina U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Žilina U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Žilina U19 2 – 1 Borussia Dortmund U19

Žilina U19 beat Borussia Dortmund U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on February 7, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión Pod Dubňom in Žilina.