Žilina II 1–2 Tatran Prešov: Result & Stats

Žilina II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Tatran Prešov

3/17/2024

2. liga · Round 20Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Žilina II40%

×Draw24%

Tatran Prešov36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Žilina IIExpected goals in this matchTatran Prešov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.55

Žilina II

1.64

Tatran Prešov

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 44 away

2.23

creates per match

1.50

1.60

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Žilina II

2.23

Tatran Prešov

1.50

allows per match

Žilina II

1.60

Tatran Prešov

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žilina II+0.00on par

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina II ↓

Tatran Prešov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Žilina II or draw

64%

Žilina II or Tatran Prešov

76%

Draw or Tatran Prešov

60%

Winning margin

Žilina II wins by 2+

20%

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Žilina II 1+ goals

81%

Žilina II 2+ goals

49%

Žilina II 3+ goals

23%

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals

79%

Tatran Prešov 2+ goals

46%

Tatran Prešov 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Žilina II (draw refunded)

52%

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina II attack 2.23 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.64

Tatran Prešov attack 1.50 + Žilina II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Žilina II scores more

40%

level

24%

Tatran Prešov scores more

36%

Žilina II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Žilina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff