Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Žilina II vs Spišská Nová Ves — 2. liga 2019

Žilina II
Žilina II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
3/3/20242. liga2. liga · Round 18Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Žilina II65%
×Draw19%
Spišská Nová Ves16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žilina II
2.33
Spišská Nová Ves
1.08

Žilina II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 16 away

creates per match

Žilina II
2.23
Spišská Nová Ves
0.56

allows per match

Žilina II
1.60
Spišská Nová Ves
2.44

finishing

Žilina II+0.00on par
Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina II ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Žilina II or draw
84%
Žilina II or Spišská Nová Ves
81%
Draw or Spišská Nová Ves
35%

Winning margin

Žilina II wins by 2+
42%
Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Žilina II 1+ goals
90%
Žilina II 2+ goals
67%
Žilina II 3+ goals
41%
Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
66%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
29%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Žilina II (draw refunded)
80%
Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina II attack 2.23 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.33

Spišská Nová Ves attack 0.56 + Žilina II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Žilina II scores more
65%
level
19%
Spišská Nová Ves scores more
16%

Žilina II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Žilina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Žilina II 5–1 Spišská Nová Ves

Žilina II beat Spišská Nová Ves 5-1 in 2. liga on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión Pod Dubňom in Žilina.