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Žilina II vs Slavoj Trebišov — 2. liga 2019

Žilina II
Žilina II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
9/23/20202. liga2. liga · Round 9Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Žilina II56%
×Draw21%
Slavoj Trebišov23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žilina II
2.12
Slavoj Trebišov
1.29

Žilina II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 69 away

creates per match

Žilina II
2.23
Slavoj Trebišov
0.97

allows per match

Žilina II
1.60
Slavoj Trebišov
2.01

finishing

Žilina II+0.00on par
Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina II ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Žilina II or draw
77%
Žilina II or Slavoj Trebišov
79%
Draw or Slavoj Trebišov
44%

Winning margin

Žilina II wins by 2+
34%
Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Žilina II 1+ goals
88%
Žilina II 2+ goals
62%
Žilina II 3+ goals
35%
Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
72%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
37%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Žilina II (draw refunded)
71%
Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina II attack 2.23 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.12

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + Žilina II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Žilina II scores more
56%
level
21%
Slavoj Trebišov scores more
23%

Žilina II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Žilina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Žilina II 2–2 Slavoj Trebišov

Žilina II and Slavoj Trebišov drew 2-2 in 2. liga on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión Pod Dubňom in Žilina.