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Slavoj Trebišov vs Žilina II — 2. liga 2019

Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Žilina II
Žilina II
10/23/20222. liga2. liga · Round 14Štadión Slavoj Trebišov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Slavoj Trebišov46%
×Draw24%
Žilina II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Trebišov
1.66
Žilina II
1.29

Slavoj Trebišov creates 29% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 98 away

creates per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.45
Žilina II
1.30

allows per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.27
Žilina II
1.87

finishing

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par
Žilina II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Trebišov ↓

Žilina II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Slavoj Trebišov or draw
70%
Slavoj Trebišov or Žilina II
76%
Draw or Žilina II
54%

Winning margin

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
24%
Žilina II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
81%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
49%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
23%
Žilina II 1+ goals
72%
Žilina II 2+ goals
37%
Žilina II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
61%
Žilina II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Trebišov at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

Žilina II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.87 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Trebišov attack 1.45 + Žilina II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.66

Žilina II attack 1.30 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slavoj Trebišov scores more
46%
level
24%
Žilina II scores more
30%

Slavoj Trebišov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slavoj Trebišov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Slavoj Trebišov 0–1 Žilina II

Žilina II beat Slavoj Trebišov 1-0 in 2. liga on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión Slavoj Trebišov in Trebišov.