Žilina II 0–1 Petržalka: Result & Stats | 2. liga

Žilina II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Petržalka

11/4/2023

2. liga · Round 15Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Žilina II47%

×Draw23%

Petržalka30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Žilina IIExpected goals in this matchPetržalka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.43

Žilina II

1.84

Petržalka

1.43

Žilina II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 96 away

2.23

creates per match

1.26

1.60

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Žilina II

2.23

Petržalka

1.26

allows per match

Žilina II

1.60

Petržalka

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žilina II+0.00on par

Petržalka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina II ↓

Petržalka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Žilina II or draw

70%

Žilina II or Petržalka

77%

Draw or Petržalka

53%

Winning margin

Žilina II wins by 2+

26%

Petržalka wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Žilina II 1+ goals

84%

Žilina II 2+ goals

55%

Žilina II 3+ goals

28%

Petržalka 1+ goals

76%

Petržalka 2+ goals

42%

Petržalka 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Žilina II (draw refunded)

61%

Petržalka (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

Petržalka away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.45 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina II attack 2.23 + Petržalka defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.84

Petržalka attack 1.26 + Žilina II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Žilina II scores more

47%

level

23%

Petržalka scores more

30%

Žilina II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Žilina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff