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Petržalka vs Žilina II — 2. liga 2019

Petržalka
Petržalka
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Žilina II
Žilina II
8/24/20252. liga2. liga · Round 5Štadión FC Petržalka 1898

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Petržalka52%
×Draw23%
Žilina II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petržalka
1.85
Žilina II
1.24

Petržalka creates 49% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 98 away

creates per match

Petržalka
1.82
Žilina II
1.30

allows per match

Petržalka
1.18
Žilina II
1.87

finishing

Petržalka+0.00on par
Žilina II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petržalka ↓

Žilina II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Petržalka or draw
74%
Petržalka or Žilina II
77%
Draw or Žilina II
48%

Winning margin

Petržalka wins by 2+
29%
Žilina II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Petržalka 1+ goals
84%
Petržalka 2+ goals
55%
Petržalka 3+ goals
28%
Žilina II 1+ goals
71%
Žilina II 2+ goals
35%
Žilina II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Petržalka (draw refunded)
67%
Žilina II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petržalka at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Žilina II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.87 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petržalka attack 1.82 + Žilina II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

Žilina II attack 1.30 + Petržalka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Petržalka scores more
52%
level
23%
Žilina II scores more
26%

Petržalka at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Petržalka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Petržalka 1–1 Žilina II

Petržalka and Žilina II drew 1-1 in 2. liga on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Štadión FC Petržalka 1898 in Bratislava.