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Žilina II vs Dubnica — 2. liga 2019

Žilina II
Žilina II
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Dubnica
Dubnica
8/22/20212. liga2. liga · Round 5Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Žilina II53%
×Draw21%
Dubnica26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žilina II
2.06
Dubnica
1.40

Žilina II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 55 away

creates per match

Žilina II
2.23
Dubnica
1.20

allows per match

Žilina II
1.60
Dubnica
1.89

finishing

Žilina II+0.00on par
Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina II ↓

Dubnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Žilina II or draw
74%
Žilina II or Dubnica
79%
Draw or Dubnica
47%

Winning margin

Žilina II wins by 2+
31%
Dubnica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Žilina II 1+ goals
87%
Žilina II 2+ goals
61%
Žilina II 3+ goals
34%
Dubnica 1+ goals
75%
Dubnica 2+ goals
41%
Dubnica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Žilina II (draw refunded)
67%
Dubnica (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

Dubnica away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina II attack 2.23 + Dubnica defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.06

Dubnica attack 1.20 + Žilina II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Žilina II scores more
53%
level
21%
Dubnica scores more
26%

Žilina II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Žilina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Žilina II 4–3 Dubnica

Žilina II beat Dubnica 4-3 in 2. liga on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Pod Dubňom in Žilina.