Zilimadjou 0–1 Remo Stars: Result & Stats

Zilimadjou

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Remo Stars

9/26/2025

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundMKO Abiola Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zilimadjou36%

×Draw38%

Remo Stars26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZilimadjouExpected goals in this matchRemo Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

0.63

Zilimadjou

0.79

Remo Stars

0.63

Zilimadjou creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.33

creates per match

0.25

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Zilimadjou

0.33

Remo Stars

0.25

allows per match

Zilimadjou

1.00

Remo Stars

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zilimadjou+0.00on par

Remo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under83
Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zilimadjou ↓

Remo Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–024%

0–115%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

76%24%1.5

42%58%2.5

17%83%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Zilimadjou or draw

74%

Zilimadjou or Remo Stars

62%

Draw or Remo Stars

64%

Winning margin

Zilimadjou wins by 2+

12%

Remo Stars wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zilimadjou 1+ goals

55%

Zilimadjou 2+ goals

19%

Zilimadjou 3+ goals

5%

Remo Stars 1+ goals

47%

Remo Stars 2+ goals

13%

Remo Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Zilimadjou (draw refunded)

58%

Remo Stars (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

13%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zilimadjou at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Remo Stars away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zilimadjou attack 0.33 + Remo Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.79

Remo Stars attack 0.25 + Zilimadjou defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Zilimadjou scores more

36%

level

38%

Remo Stars scores more

26%

Zilimadjou at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Zilimadjou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff