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Zibo Qisheng vs Nantong Haimen Codion — League Two 2022

Zibo Qisheng
Zibo Qisheng
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nantong Haimen Codion
Nantong Haimen Codion
10/27/2022League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 1Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zibo Qisheng21%
×Draw27%
Nantong Haimen Codion52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zibo Qisheng
0.83
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.47

Nantong Haimen Codion creates 77% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

creates per match

Zibo Qisheng
0.47
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.36

allows per match

Zibo Qisheng
1.58
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.20

finishing

Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par
Nantong Haimen Codion+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Qisheng ↓

Nantong Haimen Codion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zibo Qisheng or draw
48%
Zibo Qisheng or Nantong Haimen Codion
73%
Draw or Nantong Haimen Codion
79%

Winning margin

Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+
7%
Nantong Haimen Codion wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals
56%
Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals
20%
Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals
5%
Nantong Haimen Codion 1+ goals
77%
Nantong Haimen Codion 2+ goals
43%
Nantong Haimen Codion 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)
29%
Nantong Haimen Codion (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Qisheng at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Nantong Haimen Codion away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.47 + Nantong Haimen Codion defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.83

Nantong Haimen Codion attack 1.36 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zibo Qisheng scores more
21%
level
27%
Nantong Haimen Codion scores more
52%

Nantong Haimen Codion at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nantong Haimen Codion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zibo Qisheng vs Nantong Haimen Codion

Nantong Haimen Codion beat Zibo Qisheng 2-0 in League Two on October 27, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 9 in Dalian.