Zibo Qisheng 2–2 Jinan Xingzhou: Result & Stats

Zibo Qisheng

FT

2 – 2

Jinan Xingzhou

7/11/2022

League Two · Round 3Dalian Puwan Outfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zibo Qisheng14%

×Draw25%

Jinan Xingzhou61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zibo QishengExpected goals in this matchJinan Xingzhou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.59

1.58

Zibo Qisheng

0.59

Jinan Xingzhou

1.58

Jinan Xingzhou creates 168% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

0.47

creates per match

1.57

1.58

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Zibo Qisheng

0.47

Jinan Xingzhou

1.57

allows per match

Zibo Qisheng

1.58

Jinan Xingzhou

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Qisheng ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–118%

0–214%

0–38%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zibo Qisheng or draw

39%

Zibo Qisheng or Jinan Xingzhou

75%

Draw or Jinan Xingzhou

86%

Winning margin

Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+

3%

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals

45%

Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals

12%

Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals

2%

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals

79%

Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals

47%

Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)

18%

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Qisheng at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.47 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.59

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.57 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Zibo Qisheng scores more

14%

level

25%

Jinan Xingzhou scores more

61%

Jinan Xingzhou at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff