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Zibo Qisheng vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Zibo Qisheng
Zibo Qisheng
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
10/9/2023League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 6Zibo Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zibo Qisheng35%
×Draw27%
Hunan Billows FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zibo Qisheng
1.19
Hunan Billows FC
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

creates per match

Zibo Qisheng
0.47
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Zibo Qisheng
1.58
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Qisheng ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zibo Qisheng or draw
62%
Zibo Qisheng or Hunan Billows FC
73%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
65%

Winning margin

Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+
14%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals
70%
Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals
33%
Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals
12%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
72%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
36%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)
48%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Qisheng at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.47 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.19

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zibo Qisheng scores more
35%
level
27%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
38%

Hunan Billows FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hunan Billows FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Zibo Qisheng 0–1 Hunan Billows FC

Hunan Billows FC beat Zibo Qisheng 1-0 in League Two on October 9, 2023.

The match was played at Zibo Sports Center Stadium in Zibo.