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Zibo Qisheng vs BIT — League Two 2022

Zibo Qisheng
Zibo Qisheng
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
BIT
BIT
6/10/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 6Zibo Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zibo Qisheng28%
×Draw29%
BIT43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zibo Qisheng
0.96
BIT
1.25

BIT creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 47 away

creates per match

Zibo Qisheng
0.47
BIT
0.91

allows per match

Zibo Qisheng
1.58
BIT
1.45

finishing

Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par
BIT+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Qisheng ↓

BIT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zibo Qisheng or draw
57%
Zibo Qisheng or BIT
71%
Draw or BIT
72%

Winning margin

Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+
10%
BIT wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals
62%
Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals
25%
Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals
7%
BIT 1+ goals
71%
BIT 2+ goals
36%
BIT 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)
40%
BIT (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Qisheng at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

BIT away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.45 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.47 + BIT defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 0.96

BIT attack 0.91 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zibo Qisheng scores more
28%
level
29%
BIT scores more
43%

BIT at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "BIT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Zibo Qisheng 1–1 BIT

Zibo Qisheng and BIT drew 1-1 in League Two on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Zibo Sports Center Stadium in Zibo.