Zibo Cuju 3–1 Xinjiang Tianshan: Result & Stats

Zibo Cuju

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Xinjiang Tianshan

8/29/2022

League One · Round 17Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zibo Cuju50%

×Draw25%

Xinjiang Tianshan24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zibo CujuExpected goals in this matchXinjiang Tianshan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.00

Zibo Cuju

1.56

Xinjiang Tianshan

1.00

Zibo Cuju creates 56% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 72 away

0.97

creates per match

0.63

1.38

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Zibo Cuju

0.97

Xinjiang Tianshan

0.63

allows per match

Zibo Cuju

1.38

Xinjiang Tianshan

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Cuju ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zibo Cuju or draw

76%

Zibo Cuju or Xinjiang Tianshan

75%

Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan

50%

Winning margin

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+

26%

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals

79%

Zibo Cuju 2+ goals

46%

Zibo Cuju 3+ goals

21%

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals

63%

Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals

26%

Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)

67%

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Cuju at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Cuju attack 0.97 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.56

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zibo Cuju scores more

50%

level

25%

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more

24%

Zibo Cuju at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zibo Cuju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff