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Zibo Cuju vs Suzhou Dongwu — League One 2018

Zibo Cuju
Zibo Cuju
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Suzhou Dongwu
Suzhou Dongwu
10/26/2022League OneLeague One · Round 25Dalian Sports Centre Stadium Field No.3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zibo Cuju35%
×Draw28%
Suzhou Dongwu38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zibo Cuju
1.17
Suzhou Dongwu
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 93 away

creates per match

Zibo Cuju
0.97
Suzhou Dongwu
1.10

allows per match

Zibo Cuju
1.38
Suzhou Dongwu
1.38

finishing

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par
Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Cuju ↓

Suzhou Dongwu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zibo Cuju or draw
62%
Zibo Cuju or Suzhou Dongwu
72%
Draw or Suzhou Dongwu
65%

Winning margin

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+
14%
Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals
69%
Zibo Cuju 2+ goals
33%
Zibo Cuju 3+ goals
11%
Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals
71%
Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals
35%
Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)
48%
Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Cuju at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Suzhou Dongwu away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Cuju attack 0.97 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.10 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zibo Cuju scores more
35%
level
28%
Suzhou Dongwu scores more
38%

Suzhou Dongwu at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Suzhou Dongwu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Zibo Cuju 1–3 Suzhou Dongwu

Suzhou Dongwu beat Zibo Cuju 3-1 in League One on October 26, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Sports Centre Stadium Field No.3 in Dalian.